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Article name & author

Decarbonisation and Disruption: Understanding the financial risks of a disorderly transition using climate scenarios

Author: UNEP Finance Initiative

Industry Group: Financial

Research / Insights - 2021

This paper covers two primary themes of relevance to financial institutions, with support from Oliver Wyman. First, it examines sector specific risk drivers that could result in a disorderly transition, making the argument that climate transition risk is a significant near-term threat to much of the economy. Second, the report explored how these risk drivers are currently being modeled in climate scenarios produced by major integrated assessment models (IAMs). The paper also includes bank case studies that affirm greater economic risks associated with disorderly transition scenarios compared with orderly transition scenarios.

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Keywords: Climate-related risk, Market risk, Policy & legal risk, Scenario analysis, Technology risk, Transition risks
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