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In 2019, the PRI commissioned a ground-breaking analysis of inevitable policy responses by governments around the world, to meet the 1.5 degrees Paris ambition, and released a paper outlining these policies. The updated IPR 2021 policy forecast is a thoroughly revised and updated set of policy forecasts, reflecting even further detailed research on current and proposed policies, with input from a global survey of policy experts. This forms the basis for a new Forecast Policy Scenario which will be published in 2021.

The questions for risk forecasting are when this response will come, what policies will be used, and where the impact will be felt. IPR 2021 forecasts a response by 2025 that will be forceful, precisely because climate policy has been so delayed across the world.