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Article name & author

An energy transition risk stress test for the financial system of the Netherlands

Author: Robert Vermeulen, Edo Schets, Melanie Lohuis, Barbara Kölbl, David-Jan Jansen, Willem Heeringa

Industry Group: All Industry Groups

Research / Insights - 2018

This study develops a new methodology to conduct an energy transition risk stress test for financial institutions and applies it to the financial system of the Netherlands. The stress test is conducted by analyzing four severe but plausible energy transition scenarios. Each scenario is first translated into an impact on key macroeconomic variables and then disaggregated to a industry specific impacts by using industry-specific Transition Vulnerability Factors. The stress test results suggest that the losses for financial institutions in the event of a disruptive energy transition could be sizeable, but also manageable. Individual financial institutions can mitigate the risks for their portfolio by taking energy transition risks into account. In addition, policy makers can help to avoid unnecessary losses by implementing timely, reliable and effective climate policies. As stress testing energy transition risks is a relatively new field of study, future work could help to further refine the results.

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Keywords: Assets and liabilities, Financial impacts, Market risk, Policy & legal risk, Scenario analysis, Technology risk, Transition risks
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