Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures
  • About
  • Recommendations
  • Publications
  • Support TCFD
    • Press Releases
    • Media Coverage
  • Knowledge Hub
Knowledge Hub MenuClose Menu
  • Knowledge Hub Home
  • Resources
    • Resource database
    • Case Studies
    • Report Database
  • Getting Started
    • Introduction
    • Governance
    • Strategy
    • Risk Management
    • Metrics and Targets
    • Scenario Analysis
    • FAQs
  • Educational Resources
    • Online courses
    • Climate Risk Card Game
    • Downloadable Training Pack
  • TCFD 建议

TCFD Knowledge Hub

 Back to Resources
Article name & author

Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques

Author: Lord et al.

Industry Group: All Industry Groups

Research / Insights - 2016

Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future conditions can lead to hundreds or even thousands of plausible future scenarios. Creating highly diverse but conceivable visions of the future in which to explore decision-making, exploratory futures techniques rely on the selection of a small number of plausible scenarios from the larger set. In this paper we describe a new method for finding maximally diverse sets containing a small number of plausible scenarios from a multi-dimensional morphological analysis. It is based on a mathematical optimization of diversity that is robust to the uncertainty in the framing of future factors and states and in what stakeholders might consider diverse combinations of those factors and states. We also describe implementation of the method as a software tool and its performance in recent exploratory scenario development by CGIAR and partners for regional environmental change, food security and livelihoods.

 Was this resource useful?
Keywords: Scenario analysis
GO TO RESOURCE
Loading...
Report a Problem
Case Study

Powered by:

CDP Logo

This site is operated by CDP.

  • About the Hub
  • FAQ
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Policy

Contact Us

[email protected]

Newsletter

To receive updates about the platform and its launch, sign up to the newsletter

SUBSCRIBE

The newsletter is operated by CDP*

*CDP Worldwide, registered charity number 1122330, a company limited by guarantee 05013650, headquartered at CDP Worldwide, 60 Great Tower Street, London EC3R 5AZ, United Kingdom. CDP Worldwide is regulated by the Charity Commission.