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Article name & author

Managing uncertainty: a review of food system scenario analysis and modelling

Author: Michael Reilly, Dirk Willenbockel

Industry Group: Agriculture, Food, and Forest Products

Research / Insights - 2010

Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address. Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches.

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Keywords: Scenario analysis
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